musings: 2008

At the risk of using rather reductionist filters to try and process what has happened let me outline the following
* the court case judgment was Zuma challenging the constitutionality of the process of prosecuting him. Both legal practitioners and the judge stated that the case was not about guilt or innocence but about whether due process was followed.
* the judge essentially stated that due process was not followed.

However in the course of reading his judgment he made some comments
insinuating executive interference. see http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-09-12-round-one-to-zuma
* Many Zuma supporters took the kicking out of the case as a declaration of innocence which was not what was at issue
* Immediately the ANC's National Working Committee recommended to the National Executive Committee (NEC) the "recalling" of the president.
* Between Friday and Sunday, the NEC debated this recall issue and it's political, economic and social impact.

Unfortunately most individuals, not bothering to read or even after having read, being unaware of the nuances in the processes underway, often end up making blanket statements that border on misrepresentation at best and inaccuracies at worst.
* Every member of the ANC is "deployed" to different levels of national, provincial and local government and the party has a right to recall them whenever it sees fit.
* The ANC made a statement during the weekend about the recall see http://www.anc.org.za/show.php?doc=./ancdocs/pr/2008/pr0920.html
* It is for this reason Mbeki didn't resist the recall and stated he would resign once "all constitutional requirements have been met". see http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/showc.asp?type=pr&include=president/pr/2008/pr09\201513.htm&ID=1415
* This cryptic statement actually demonstrates that this is a very carefully choreographed transition of power within the executive from one "ANC cadre" to another.
* Mbeki's speech to the nation was very dignified highlighting the ANC government's successes and failures see http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/showc.asp?type=sp&include=president/sp/2008/sp09\
21210.htm&ID=1795
* Zuma's media speech almost 24hours later was also very dignified
praising the great work Mbeki has done as leader of an ANC government
and this was simply about deploying another ANC comrade to take the
work forward see http://www.anc.org.za/show.php?doc=./ancdocs/pr/2008/pr0922.html
* In the meantime Mbeki is calmly winding down his business see http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/showc.asp?type=pr&include=president/pr/2008/pr09\
221550.htm&ID=1416

It amazes me that it's everyone else that claims Zuma and Mbeki are
sworn enemies.
* I have been within meters of them sitting and being very civil to each other
* published sources also show their relationship see
http://kidali.blogspot.com/2007/12/in-words-of-mark-gevisser-mbeki-and_19.html
http://kidali.blogspot.com/2007/12/in-words-of-mark-gevisser-mbeki-and_21.html
http://kidali.blogspot.com/2007/12/in-words-of-mark-gevisser-mbeki-and_3550.html
* Zuma has stated that "Mbeki remains a comrade" see
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-09-22-mbeki-remains-my-comrade-says-zuma
* For those that are not aware being called a comrade is a higher
accolade that being a family member. See what the late Govan Mbeki
said about meeting his son Thabo Mbeki in Lusaka after not
communicating for decades during the liberation struggle
http://www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/history/people/gmbeki/docs/suntimes_020901.htm

Lessons for Kenya? Numerous including the fact that party members can differ with each other fundamentally but still remain within the party. The ANC has gone through numerous upheavals (e.g. in the late 1950s when Africanists left to form PAC, or the 1940s when an ANC Youth League was formed when young radicals differed with the old
guard conservatives etc) and the current series of events being of many that threaten to split the party and which I highly doubt it will.

Why isn't the current national deputy president not going to take over? Because the ANC is going to use section 86 of the constitution and not section 89. It is not about impeaching Mbeki (which is what section 89 would be) but rather a shifting of leadership responsibilities and therefore the election of a new president from
within the ruling party. See http://www.info.gov.za/documents/constitution/1996/96cons5.htm The election will happen in Parliament which is why Mbeki sent his resignation letter to the Speaker of Parliament.