An assessment of Kenya's power politics

In the early 70s the late JM Kariuki stated "Kenya has become a nation of 10 millionaires and 10 million beggars."

In the early to mid 80s, Kenya grew to a nation of 20 millionaires and 20 million beggars

In the mid to late 90s, Kenya grew to a nation of 30 millionaires and 30 million beggars

What did the millionaires have? Economic reigns in a country where there was increasing centralization of power. While it is perceived they came from one community, the reality of capital is such that there's representation from not only other ethnic groupings within Kenya but also from outside the country (from within and outside the region). The ethnic moajority could be, in part, the result of a higher statistical representation of one ethnic community due to the realities of Kenya's ethnic diversity.

What were these beggars begging for? Democratic space, economic opportunities, education and social development, shelter etc

In the last few months, a large majority of those millionaires (US dollar millionaires) grouped with the incumbent and funded a campaign to maintain the status quo. Several of them sided with the opposition while a couple decided to adopt a wait-and-see attitude of the whole situation.

The incumbent's power cartel didn't envisage a lost election and therefore didn't have elaborate contingency plans. It is no wonder the voting went on smoothly. However, as soon as the tallying process started revealing a possible power shift, all hell broke loose and the chaos that followed revealed the exceeding panic that gripped the core of the cartel (hence the lack of finesse in the events around the announcement of election results).

Kenya has had multi-party elections in 1992, 1997 and 2002. In previous elections, there was a lot of pre-election violence and preceding 1992, particularly brutal violence. Various studies including those by UN agencies, Human rights institutions and others have revealed that, in many cases, the pre-election violence has been politically instigated.

While there was minimal pre-election violence in past elections, it is curios to note that this time it was post-election violence that has severely traumatized the nation and horrified the world. It will take a long before the nation is able to do understand and deal with this recent horror.