Ref: http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143983373&cid=4&PHPSESSID=d1ab67e6f6bb53ad68444f841bfca702
Published on March 16, 2008, 12:00 am
By Dennis Onyango
Behind the faÁade of warm handshakes with hitherto bitter rivals in President Kibaki’s camp, Prime minister-designate Mr Raila Odinga is walking a tight rope.
Prime minister-designate Raila Odinga with Pentagon members, from left, Ms Charity Ngilu, Mr Najib Balala, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, and Ugenya MP, Mr James Orengo.
In his party, the Orange Democratic Movement, he is captive of competing inter-ethnic interests for vantage positions in the new pecking order.
He is fighting two wars, the first being to get "real power sharing and portfolio’’ balance in the Government, as well as the space and influence of the most powerful office outside State House.
In the backstage, there is the trickier game of juggling the interests of the influential personalities, without upsetting the inter-ethnic bonds that formed the Orange mosaic.
Thirdly, the leader of the party on the road to sharing government positions with Kibaki’s Party of National Unity has the arduous task of reaching out to the other side, as a signal he means well and is accommodating.
But even as he reaches out, there is the delicate balance, the act of spreading his tentacles without losing grip of ODM. Any sign he has been "swallowed, or is "carried away", could trigger trouble for him in ODM.
The Lang’ata MP has in the last two weeks had lunch with Cabinet ministers Martha Karua and Mr Amos Kimunya, and hosted the President’s son at Pentagon House.
He has also featured in public with President Kibaki, exuding confidence and smiling broadly. The President, too, has, going by the footage, taken him on board with speed and resolve that seems to have surprised hardliners that only weeks ago were calling power sharing a dream.
Power to trickle down
But in a burial in Kericho on Saturday, in what could signal the sensitivity of the balancing act waiting for Raila, three ODM MPs – Mr Kipkalya Kones, Mr Franklin Bett and Dr Julius Kones – said the sharing of power within ODM should be based on the voting pattern in the December election.
"If we gave more votes than the North Rift, we the Kipsigis should get the bigger portion,’’ said Bett.
The North Rift is largely inhabited by the Nandi sub-clan of the Kalenjin, one of communities that roundly voted for Raila.
Bett asked: " If PNU and ODM are sharing power on equal basis, then why should the same formula be adopted within ODM?"
He then threw the spanner in the works: "We are waiting, if this consideration is not taken into account, we shall decide on the alternative."
Dr Julius Kones added: "We support the power deal but not just on the horizontal basis between Kibaki and Raila, ODM and PNU, but we need to let it trickle down to the grassroots. This is ODM’s greatest test.’’
But this was not just an isolated demand in ODM. After the rich harvest of votes, which landed the party 99, elected MPs and six parliamentary nominees, and with the signs it had made a kill, some in the party began plotting on how to share the spoils. Many in the party after all believe their victory was stolen by PNU, and so a half is better than nothing.
During the campaigns, ODM projected it would go for a lean Cabinet of between 18-25 ministers, with a highly reduced number of assistant ministers.
But the election fiasco has landed ODM in a coalition with PNU, leaving only a few seats for it to pick up. There may not be open lobbying, but there is anxiety in the party, especially among those eyeing the Cabinet.
Nyanza wants five seats
Inside the party, there is some agreement that because this is going to be a shared government, each partner must give its best man or woman as the Cabinet is picked. Some leaders say the party must pay attention to ability and efficiency, alongside the need for regional balancing and party loyalty.
"Personality could play a role. This is going to be a very competitive government and there will be a lot of haggling over policies," Mbita MP Mr Otieno Kajwang’ says.
He also says he is not lobbying for a Cabinet seat. But in the party, he is said to be one of those locked in the battle for the few slots for Nyanza.
Luo Nyanza, sources say, is looking at ODM secretary general Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, Kajwang and Rongo MP, Mr Dalmas Otieno.
ODM leaders say the Grand Coalition Government could have a Cabinet of between 30–34 members. If the slots are shared equally, ODM and PNU will have between 15 and 17 positions each.
That ‘sharing’ is giving headache to ODM, the party that won in six of eight provinces and wants to accommodate every region in the few Cabinet slots.
Some of the MPs eyeing the Cabinet are also looking into all sorts of scenarios in a Cabinet that is expected to pay attention to regional balance.
All indications point to what will likely be criticised as unwieldy and wasteful. But party leaders have a headache in reducing positions while containing coalition members.
Party insiders say the balancing is tight and regions should be prepared for far less than they expect.
Although some leaders from Nyanza Province say the region should get at least five Cabinet slots, indications are that it would be lucky to get three.
Some party strategists want one Cabinet slot for what used to be Central Nyanza, the former Siaya and Kisumu districts. One more slot is to be spared for Southern Nyanza and another for Kisii.
According to Kajwang’, who clarified that his was not party position, said Luo Nyanza is unique.
"This region has long been in turbulent opposition politics. In the process, some people stayed through the hard years of struggle," the MP said.
"The party may want to recognise loyalty and dedication to the struggle. It would be bad to create an impression that being in a struggle and remaining faithful to it does not pay," he adds.
Kajwang is said to be locked in the search for the southern Nyanza slot with his neighbours, Otieno and Orwa Ojode of Ndhiwa. Nobody knows which way the balance will go.
"The most that Luo Nyanza can get in the Cabinet after getting the PM post is three Cabinet ministers and even that could be considered too much," the an official said.
"It is important to reward loyalty and consistency. There are people who have worked for the party and that is something that cannot be ignored," the official added.
Ojodeh, on the other hand says Nyanza deserves five Cabinet positions, with one going to Kisii while the rest is shared in Luo Nyanza.
Kisii has Omingo Magara, the party’s treasurer who could benefit together with other party officials like Mr Henry Kosgey and Prof Nyong’o.
But there is also former Cabinet Minister Mr Chris Obure, who has been steadfast in supporting the party. "Luo Nyanza is the only place President Kibaki has excluded in his Cabinet. All the other regions are included. I am not saying this so that I get a position. It is a fact that Luo Nyanza has been in the cold for too long," Ojodeh said.
Leaders from other regions say that for the sake of the future support, Nyanza should expect less than other regions.
Rift Valley headache
But the biggest headache for ODM is in the Rift Valley.
Like Nyanza, Rift Valley voted almost exclusively for ODM, has more MPs and bore the brunt of the violence that gripped the country after the polls. Inside the party, no one doubts that the region needs to be ‘rewarded’.
But at most, there could be only 17 slots for about 100 ODM MPs drawn from six provinces.
Some of the leaders from the Rift Valley think the region should get some five slots in the Cabinet, in recognition of the huge vote it brought to the party.
Currently, some of the most visible MPs from the Rift Valley are Nandi. There is Pentagon member Mr William Ruto, who represents his party at the negotiations and is also a member of the House Business Committee.
Then there is Aldai MP, Dr Sally Kosgei, former Head of Civil Service who also represents ODM in the post-election talks.
Last week, when ODM leader Raila Odinga opted out of the House Business Committee, he surrendered his position to Dr Kosgey. The Aldai MP is from Nandi South District.
The party’s chairman, Mr Henry Kosgey, is also from Nandi South.
It is largely a foregone conclusion that Mr Ruto will be in the Cabinet alongside other Pentagon members. But the mix of Dr Kosgey and Mr Kosgey, presents the headache.
There is some agreement that an ODM Cabinet that excludes Dr Kosgey will be the poorer. She has the experience and the knowledge it takes to serve in the Cabinet.
During the crisis talks, she served her party well, exploiting his links in the diplomatic community to rally diplomats to see the ODM side of the case.
The need for gender balance also favours her. Her appointment would not be one of those that comes simply because she is a woman.
But some see Mr Kosgey, as entitled to a Cabinet slot as the party chairman.
Opinion is divided on this. Some feel that Mr Kosgey should be contented with being chairman. They argue that in recognition of the party’s quest for change, Mr Kosgey should not fight over Cabinet slot with Dr Kosgey.
There are party leaders who think the three –Ruto, Sally and Henry – should be in the Cabinet. If that happens, then there are the other Kalenjin sub-clans, especially the populous Kipsigis, to be ‘appeased’.
An official in the ODM strategy team admitted that Rift Valley is a headache. "The thinking is that Rift Valley be given all the heavy ministries we get, most likely four. First give them more ministries, and then give them more assistant ministers. They have also to be given more parastatal positions. The region has to be compensated," the official said.
"The Kipsigis could have two and Nandis two. But there is a big problem here. All our most prominent leaders are from Nandi. Rift Valley is going to be a headache, but it must be balanced," the official added.
Among the Kipsigis, the prominent names are Chepalungu MP Mr Isaac Ruto, Dr Julius Kones of Konoin, Belgut’s Mr Charles Keter, Bomets’ Mr Kipkalya Kones, Buret’s Mr Franklin Bett and Sotik’s Mr Lorna Laboso.
The local thinking is that the party needs to give priority to fresh, younger politicians. Outside Kalenjin land of Nandi and Kipsigis, there is also Maasai, which is also part of the Rift Valley. The party has three MPs from Maasai land, two from Samburu and one from Turkana.
Indications are that Narok North MP, William ole Ntimama will be in the Cabinet. Weighed against Kajiado Central MP Joseph Nkaissery, Ntimama is seen in the party to wield more clout. Western Province is also getting tricky, especially after it landed the Speaker’s post.
Criteria for sharing
There is a feeling the region should be contented with two Cabinet positions, especially if Mr Musalia Mudavadi becomes Deputy PM.
Others say the region is already significantly represented in government, with the Speaker, Cabinet Minster Moses Wetangula, and Attorney General Amos Wako.
The Coast, with 12 MPs in ODM, is expected to get not more than two Cabinet positions. But Kisauni MP Hassan Joho says the region is not making any demands.
"The party’s leadership at the Coast is not putting any demands that we need this or that position. We have confidence in the leadership of the party and we will go by what the party decides," Joho said.
North Eastern, which already has a PNU minister, is expected to get only one from ODM. Regional balancing comes with the burden of the sharing of ministries between PNU and ODM. PNU has taken 17 slots, almost all of them the most powerful ministries.
Some ODM leaders say the entire Cabinet should be dissolved and constituted afresh, with the sharing in mind.
There are also those who say that even without dissolving and reconstituting the Cabinet, there are about 10 ministries currently vacant, which ODM could take, then negotiate over some five powerful ones with PNU.
"From the ones that are vacant, we can identify 10 that we can take. Then we negotiate with PNU on how to share some five ministries like Transport, Finance, Public Works, Local Government and Internal Security," a top ODM leader said.
Others are calling for weighting of ministries, arguing that the portfolios are not equal.
"Each ministry has its rating in terms of how it impacts on life and the budget it attracts. Some weighting will have to be done," an MP familiar with the thinking in the top party said.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment