Commentary - Is it possible that Kibaki is an ‘evil’ genius? (by Mutahi Ngunyi)

Posted Saturday, January 10 2009 at 15:49

In Summary

* The president has managed to outwit quite a number of his adversaries

As a political scientist, I find President Kibaki a little challenging to analyse. In fact, he is a frustrating ‘‘specimen’’ to dissect for two reasons.

One, he has this unusual ability to multiply identities. Today he is weak and soft; tomorrow he is as hard as a rock! One moment he appears dazed and woolly; next moment he is strong and foxy.

This seesaw is confusing: Maybe even calculated and acted out. And this is what frustrates me about the man. You cannot read him.

TWO, A FEW ‘CLEVER’ CHAPS pretend to have read him. They tell us that he is laid back, hands-off and indecisive! These chaps are dead wrong. I want to suggest the alternative, although I could be wrong as well.

Is it possible that we have two Kibakis? That the first one is cool and collected; while the second is controlling and power hungry? When upset and miffed, maybe the second Kibaki kicks stools all over State House – using the good leg of course! My point? We do not know this man. And what is more: he likes it that way.

To support this thought, I invite you to consider three happenings of the week. The first regards the ‘‘Muthaura Question’’ and we must analyse it using a Russian anecdote.

In this story, and after many years of waiting, Czar Nicolas II and his German wife Alexandra got a son. However, the boy had a blood disorder and was set to die any time.

The couple was distressed and blue. And out of this tragedy, the most evil politician in history emerged: Gregory Rusputin.

This guy was a spiritual leader with dubious credentials. But whenever the boy got sick, Rusputin would pray for him and he would miraculously recover.

The ability to ‘‘heal’’ the boy gave him immense powers over the Royal Family. In fact, he warned the King that his son would live so long as he listened to his advice.

And out of desperation, the Russian government reeled under the unwise advice of this evil amateur. The result? Seeds of revolution were planted and watered with discontent.

The blunders inspired by Rusputin gave rise to the Menshevik Revolution of 1915. The Royal Family was butchered and a new order established.

The Romanov historians tell us that, without Rusputin, there would have been no Lenin; no communism!

Back to Ambassador Muthaura. Some people believe that he is president Kibaki’s Rusputin. Like the desperate Royal Family, President Kibaki came to power on a wheel-chair. His leg was broken, his neck fractured, and his arm dislocated.

A month later, he suffered a stroke and was hospitalised. At this point he needed a ‘‘miracle healer’’; a Rusputin. And from this tragedy, a group of ‘‘healers’’ emerged.

All, except Mr Muthaura, have been fired. Because of this, we have concluded that Mr Muthaura is the one: The ‘‘evil genius’’ behind the President.

But we are damn wrong.

In fact, ODM’s aggression on Mr Muthaura is cowardly and woolly. This man is not the problem. And whether his position is constitutional or not is irrelevant. Mr Muthaura is just a ‘‘concept’’ created by the President.

Unlike Rusputin who held the Royal Family captive, Mr Muthaura is a captive of the President. Technically, therefore, he does not have a mind of his own.

He is just a walking shell that receives instructions from the boss. If the ‘‘shell’’ undermines the Prime Minister, it is because the boss said so. And if ODM insists on dismantling the ‘‘shell’’, the President will just acquire another one.

In my view, therefore, ODM is acting sub-optimally. Instead of aggressing the captive messenger, they should confront his foxy boss.

My second issue regards the media law. And on this one, the old man has outsmarted us. What is more: his game plan remains invisible to most of us. I could be wrong on this one also, but allow me to interpret it. For starters, he was not compelled into signing it by anyone.

This was a sole and tactical decision. In fact, it is very similar to his swearing-in ceremony. Once sworn in, he occupied the high moral ground. ODM had no choice but to negotiate on his terms. This is how he fixed them on the 50:50 agreement.

And on the media law, he signed it knowing too well it was draconian. But by signing it, he occupied the high moral ground.

Now the media are forced to negotiate on his terms. If this is true, my counsel to the fourth estate is this: Be afraid, be very afraid!

My last issue goes back to ODM and the Peace Accord. In my view, ODM is naïve to the extreme. They built “… a coalition based on trust; instead of creating a coalition that builds trust”. Blinded by love and trust, they embraced the old man uncritically.

But as they hugged and kissed him, he was engaged in devious legislative engineering. In fact, and through the Peace Accord, he made them his captives as well.

If they ditch the coalition, there will be no election because this clause was removed from the deal. If they mobilise the people to mass action, we will tell them to go to hell!

The question therefore is this: If they pull out, who would be the loser? In my view, ODM would lose. And the tragedy is that they are intellectually lazy.

Instead of giving us drama ‘‘without legs’’ they should take some time to study President Kibaki and his underground schemes. Although he is in his late 70s, they must not underestimate his quiet genius.

And now a thought for our Luo ‘‘cousin’’ Mr Barack Obama. As his country of ancestry, we need to say a prayer for him between now and his inauguration. We must pray for his preservation. More so because it is “… never over, until it is over!” He is not president until they swear him in.

Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security think-tank for the Great Lakes region and West Africa.